It may seem strange, but in the next olive oil campaign there will be a significant reduction in extra virgin olive oil production with strong repercussions on the various destination markets.
The problem has its roots in the following factors:
- The scarce spring rains in Andalusia are putting fruit set at serious risk, which seems rather poor, and as we know, if Spain produces 50% of the world's EVO oil, Andalusia in turn accounts for 50% of Spanish production;
- Italian oil stocks (primarily those from Puglia and Calabria) are at historic lows, and even in Italy the season looks uncertain, with production expected to be around 200,000 tons;
- The large Italian industries are looking around because the reference market for labeling an oil as community oil depends on Spain, given that Greek production is only slightly higher than Italian; so the spotlight is on Tunisia and Turkey, which, however, pose some problems since they are not part of the EU (but then there is the loophole of olives being harvested, frozen, imported, and milled in Italy).
All this is causing a sharp increase in prices, which have already reached and exceeded 6 euros per liter for community oil (Spain and Greece) and consequently the shelf price of an oil that will only be Italian in the language printed on the label will be at least 7/8 euros per liter.
Then there is the oil mill sector, which will have to increase its price list since, in order not to run out of oil for its customers (by the way, have you ever wondered why you always find oil in oil mills, regardless of how the season went?) it will inevitably have to buy batches of oil from southern Italy's depots which, as mentioned above, are at historic lows. And even at the oil mill, prices do not go below 10/11 euros per liter.
Finally, there are the small olive oil producers who, even in a difficult market context, manage to keep prices not above 13/14 euros thanks to the fact that they do not have to buy oil from third parties and limit themselves to selling what they produce, in full compliance with the rules and their customers.
The final choice is up to the consumer, knowing that, with the new olive oil campaign, the price gap is minimal and so perhaps it is worth spending 2€ more and taking home an Italian, genuine, and certified product.
Sincere advice: don't wait until the last minute, book your oil now because by November you may not find it anymore.